Gambler's fallacy

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lines:45
license : MIT License
modified : 2010-01-09 02:31:41

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package {
    import flash.display.Sprite;
    import flash.text.TextField;
    public class Fallacy extends Sprite {
        public function Fallacy() {
        		var text:TextField = new TextField();
        		text.x = 10;
        		text.y = 10;
        		text.width = stage.stageWidth - 10;
        		text.height = stage.stageHeight - 10;
        		addChild(text);
            // write as3 code here..
            var playTimes:Number = 10000;
            var times:Number = 0;
            var count:Number = 0;
            var count30:Number = 0;
            var sum:Number = 0;
            for (var i:Number = 0; i < playTimes; i++) {
            		for (count = 0, times = 0; count < 9;) {
            			times++;
            			if (roll() != 1)
            			{
            				count = 0;
            				continue;
            			}
            			count++;
            		}
            		sum += times;
            		if (times <= 30)
            			count30++;
            		if (i % (playTimes / 10) == 0)
	            		text.text = text.text + (i+1) + ".\t\t\tStop at " + times + " times.\n";
            }
            text.text = "Average:\t\t" + sum / playTimes + " times.\n" + "Below 30:\t" + count30 / playTimes * 100 + "%\n\n" + text.text;
        }
        
        private function roll():Number {
        		var ret:Number = Math.round(11 * Math.random()) + 1;
        		if (ret <= 5)
        			return -1;
        		else if(ret <= 10)
        			return 1;
        		else
        			return 0;
        }
    }
}

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